中国汽车消费者再也不把价格放在考虑购买因素的第一位。虽然在短时期内，本土品牌可以享受较高的销售额，但从长远来看，这将降低他们创新的积极性 雷霆生
奥地利EFS汽车咨询公司总裁
当看到行驶在北京大街上的奥迪A6L，大家一定会猜测这可能是某个政府官员的车。对于传统的几十年来被指定为官方党政机关公务车的奥迪、奔驰以及其它外国汽车品牌，大约占所有公务车的80％左右。但是从今年开始，这种现象可能将会结束。
今年被批准进入政府采购的412款车型将被限定为国产自主品牌，这意味着所有的外国汽车制造商将在世界最大的汽车市场上被锁定在大约800亿元人民币（约127亿美元）这笔大订单的门外。根据来自中国工业和信息化部的消息，这个公务车采购的初步名单，现阶段只是征求意见稿，公开征求社会各界意见一直到3月9日。
根据这项政府采购规则，用于公务使用的车辆，如征收税务用车，其发动机应小于1.8升，成本不超过18万元人民币（约28,571美元）。此外合格的汽车制造商在过去的两年内用于研发的经费必须大于该企业核心收入的3％。政府表示，此项新的采购规则也是努力降低行政成本，节约能源和减少污染的一部分。
中国汽车制造商，如东风、一汽、长城等在这项政府采购意见稿中一公布，股价就开始大涨；而在另外一边，大众、宝马、戴姆勒、标致 - 雪铁龙和雷诺的股价应声而下。
这是中国政府决心拯救国内汽车业的一个强有力的信号。正如我们所知道的，去年中国自主品牌因国家取消了各种刺激措施而大受打击；同时，国外品牌以及合资品牌却享受着销量快速增长的幸福。
这表明，中国汽车消费者再也不把价格放在考虑购买因素的第一位了，而更愿意通过衡量产品质量、品牌形象和可靠性等因素来决定是否购买。也许正因为这样，让中国的官员意识到如果在几年以后，当中国汽车消费者变得更加成熟之后，或许他们将不再购买中国自主品牌的汽车了。在这种情况的威胁下，中国政府终于决定要加强力度阻止这种情况的发生。
或许有人想反驳说这种情况仅限于一线城市的汽车消费者，而位于2、3、4线城市的汽车消费者在购买汽车的时候，价格还是起到决定性因素。此外，他们大多还是汽车的首次购买者，因此不太容易考虑到价格以外的因素。
在我看来，经过几年的发展之后历史终将重演，这些地区会和今天的一线城市一样，由此希望未成熟汽车市场将会有截然不同的汽车购买习惯，将是一场危险的赌博游戏，而且往往事与愿违。
近年来，很多中高档汽车品牌，如奥迪、奔驰和宝马都有延伸到低成本市场的细分产品；而自主品牌中，如吉利则试图通过购买沃尔沃而跻身到中高档市场。
竞争愈演愈烈，外国汽车制造商正通过产品本土化来削减成本，而中国汽车制造商正在努力提高技术、质量和品牌形象。然而，本土品牌正在面临的问题是，品牌的建立需要很长的一段时间，而降低成本，可较快实现。也许这就是为什么中国官员决定这项新规则的另外一个理由，以促进和培育本土品牌。
但在我看来，这太少太迟了。举个例子，政府作为奥迪的一个大客户只占奥迪总销量的10％，而绝大多数的90％仍是私人汽车消费者。此举来得太迟了，它不再能够改变私人汽车消费者的购买行为。
同时，这是一个危险的举动，很可能会适得其反。
中国早在10年前就已经加入了世贸组织，致力于开拓市场。如果现在中国的政府官员停止购买外国品牌，自然外国将会停止购买中国品牌。虽然这不会影响到目前的中国汽车行业，但它可能会导致在外国做得非常好的中国企业不再受外国的欢迎，例如：华为的电信设备。
2009年，在金融危机的高峰期，美国总统奥巴马曾考虑实施“购买美国货”的倡议，任何政府采购都将有利于美国品牌的发展。但是最终美国政府决定放弃这项提议，因为他们明白，这可能会长远地伤害到美国经济，更甚于短期内受益。
今天的中国汽车行业可以说基本上是一个政府的行业，因此，政府在尝试着挽救其投资的时候，此举是不会令人惊讶的。但是，我真诚地怀疑，决定只买本土自主品牌，想尽一切办法来改善自主品牌的这一举动，却是一个贸易保护主义举措，目的是扼杀良性的竞争、改善和发展。
虽然在短时期内，本土品牌可以享受较高的销售额，但从长远来看，这将降低他们创新的积极性。
Too little too late
This move comes too late, it’s no longer able to change the buying behavior of private auto consumers.
When seeing an Audi A6L running on the streets of Beijing most people would guess that it’s a car from government officials. For some decades Volkswagen’s Audi, Mercedes-Benz and other foreign brands have been traditionally among those selected by the government, which accounted for about 80 percent of the official pool. Starting from this year there might be an end.
According to a proposal disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology last week, China’s government plans to stop procuring cars from all foreign brands, even including all the Joint-Venture brands, and solely select domestic brands.
All 412 models approved for purchase by state agencies 2012 will be limited to Chinese local brands, which means all foreign automakers will be locked out of an estimated 80 billion Yuan ($12.7 billion) segment of the world’s biggest vehicle market. The preliminary list of official vehicle purchases is open for public consultation until March 9, according to Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
According to the rules, vehicles used for official purposes, such as tax collection must not have an engine size of above 1.8 liters and cost no more than 180,000 Yuan ($ 28,571). Furthermore eligible manufacturers must have spent not less than 3 percent of their core revenue on research and development in the past two years. The government said it’s also part of its effort to cut administrative costs, save energy and reduce pollution.
Chinese automakers such as Dongfeng Automobile, FAW, Great Wall Motor enjoy raising shares immediately afterwards the announcement was made. On the other side, Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler AG, PSA Peugeot Citroen and Renault’s share prices fell.
This is a strong signal that China’s government is determined to save the domestic auto industry. As we know from last year Chinese local brands suffered the most from the cancelation of incentivization packages, meanwhile foreign brands incl. JV brands enjoyed a large sales increase.
This indicates that Chinese consumers are no longer only focused on price but would rather base their buying decision on product quality, brand image and reliability. Perhaps this development made Chinese officials realize that after a few years more years in which the consumers’ buying habits will mature even more, they might no longer buy Chinese auto brands. Threatened by such a scenario the government decided to step in and stop this from happening.
People would like to argue that this is a phenomenon limited to auto consumers in Tier 1 cities as for customers in Tier 2, 3, 4 cities price is still the deciding factor when buying a car. Furthermore most of them are still first time car-buyers and therefore less prone to factors outside price.
In my opinion after a few years history will repeat there as well and we will observe the same situation as today in Tier 1 cities ? hoping that under-developed car-markets will keep different buying habits is a dangerous gamble that more often than not backfires.
In recent years many premium brands such as Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW are extending to the low cost segment while local brands such as for example Geely is trying to expand to mid-range segment through purchasing Volvo.
The competition is severe and while foreign automakers are trying to cut costs by localizing their products, Chinese automakers are trying to improve technology, quality and brand image. However the problem those local brands are facing here is that building-up brand image takes a long time, whereas cutting cost can be realized rather fast.
Perhaps this is another reason why Chinese officials determined to promote and cultivate local brands. But in my opinion this is too little too late. Just as an example: While still a large customer the government only accounts for 10% of Audi’s sales in China ? the vast majority, 90 percent, are private buyers. This move comes too late, it"s no longer able to change the buying behavior of private auto consumers.
This is a dangerous move that could easily backfire. When joining the WTO more than 10 years ago China committed to open its markets. If now Chinese government officials stop buying foreign brands it would only be natural to expect foreign countries to stop buying Chinese brands. While this would not affect the automotive industry it might lead to unwelcomed consequences for industries where Chinese companies are doing very well abroad e.g. Huawei in telecommunication equipment.
In 2009, at the peak of the financial crisis US president Obama was considering enforcing a “Buy American” initiative, which would favor domestic brands when any governmental procurement occurs. In the end the Government decided to drop it because they understood this might hurt the American economy much more than it would benefit in the short-run.
Today’s auto industry in China is basically a government-run industry therefore it doesn’t come as a surprise that the government wants to save its investments. However I sincerely doubt that the decision to only buy local brands will do anything to improve the situation as it is nothing more than protectionist move with the aim to stifle healthy competition, improvement and growth.
While local auto brands might enjoy higher sales for a short time it would hurt them in the long run as they have less incentive to innovate.