上海财经大学国际工商管理学院 摘要：文章讨论了在当前中国央行面临的货币政策环境,从多方面考察了货币政策环境，并在最后给出应当采取的政策建议。 关键词：金融警察通货膨胀政策环境
Abstract:This passage talked about the monetary policy circumstance of China,and examined the circumstance through different aspects.Than,the passage gives a suggestion that on monetary policy to Chinese central bank.
Key words:Monetary policeinflation policy environment
Recently,people are becoming more and more concerned about the fact that the central bank continues to withdraw liquidity under the expectations of inflation.It is widely expected that the time window of raising the interest rate again by the central bank is drawing near.People in the stock market are frightened by the rumor that most organizations in the current are going to increase the intensity to withdraw the fund in the case of lack of liquidity.It becomes the focus of the public opinions when the bail-out policy that is carried out since 08 subprime-crises have broken out should withdraw from the market.
Recently,Chinese Central Bank raised the interest rate by 0.25%.The capital market participants generally judged that this reflected the central bank"s worry about the inflation.The control of the circulation showed that,at least,the central bank will continue to withdraw liquidity in the short term in the case that the expectation of inflation is coming.
In 2008,the sub-prime crisis broke out in theU.S.Its influence has spread rapidly from the heart to entire capitalist world.And China"s Export-led Growth Model decided that we also be involved in the crisis.From the figures that National Bureau of Statistics has published,the GDP growth in the full year of 2007 was around 14.2% and fell sharply to 9.6% in 2008,and 8.7% in 2009.The total export is 1.2 trillion U.S.dollars in 2007,which has increased 25% over the previous year.In 2008,it"s about 1.4307 trillion U.S.dollars with an increase of 17%,which is less than before.And the total export was 1.2017 trillion U.S.dollars with an increase of-16% in 2009,in which the crisis spread to the world.To the surplus,the data in 2007,2008 and 2009 were 264.4 billion U.S.dollars,298.1 billion U.S.dollars and 196.1 billion U.S.dollars respectively,which increased by 49%,12% and -34%.It is an obvious negative curve.The weak external demand and consumers" inadequate confidence also reflects that the global economy is still stay at a low level.
The crisis has not past.There is a prediction that the problem of debts would turn from personal debt to government debt.The Greece"s sovereign debt crisis seemed to have confirmed this prediction.As a matter of fact,the euro area is lack of an effective system of central bank.At the beginning when the problem was exposed,the European Central Bank"s indifference attitude made the situation even more serious.So far,the crisis has not brought under control,and the cost is too high.There are some uncertainty still exist.The government of some European countries may be bankrupt,which can cause severe economic recession and the collapse of the euro.Therefore,the Europe"s debt crisis is a potential and instable factor that may have impact on our country and the world someday.
In the domestic economy,the government took out 4 trillion Yuan to support the fiscal stimulus plan at the beginning of sub-prime crisis,which is very similar with the fact that Federal Reserve put a plenty of liquidity into the market without hesitation and successfully avoided the depression.The fixed assets investment of the whole society in 2006,2007 and 2008 has been maintained a growth of 25%,while in 2009 it was increased to 30.1%.As for the total retail sales of social consumer goods,it also maintained rapid growth in many favorable policies such as home appliances to the countryside,purchase subsidies for cars and other measures of stimulation.In 2008,the datum is 10.84 trillionRMB,which increased by 21%.But in 2009,the growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods fell to 15.5%,and the growth rate obviously slowed down.The main reasons of the phenomenon in 2009 are as follows.With the expiration of the policies and the lack of follow-up on policy,the government laid more emphasis on the policy of investment in fixed assets.And it was affected by the spreading crisis and the recession in whole.At the same time,we should pay attention to the changes in CPI.It has increased by 5.4% in March,2011,which reflected high inflation.China"s policy in times of crisis can be interpreted as the guiding theories to increase investment and stimulate domestic demand to push the economic growth and complete the political goal of keeping the GDP growth rate 8%.
After a thorough analysis of both domestic and international macro economy,here"s the proposal of monetary policy for central bank.First,our monetary policy should keep pace with the major capital countries under current situation.The increasing of the interest rates is considered as a sign of canceling the bailout policies.At the early of this year,when the economy was recovering step by step and the expectations of inflation was becoming more and more severe.our government should act as a cautious follower in order to avoid the momentum of economic recovery.
Secondly,we must stop the inflation.It is considered commonly that the increasing of money supply will cause inflation,while the decreasing of money supply will lead to the CPI"s declining and deflation.However,the latest research in the past two decades showed that there is no obvious correlation between the changes in money supply and CPI in the short term.InChina,the situation in the past twenty-four months has proved this argument.省略）
Reference:
Leo N.Bartolotti,Inflation,fiscal policy and central banks,Nova Science Publishers
Ball,Robert James,Inflation and the theory of money,Transaction Publishers
Lindsay S.Kelsey,Monetary policy and the Federal Reserve ,New York : Nova Science Publishers（责任编辑：郭 伟）